Ref Range Issues
My company is basically without a direct comp. It sits between movie theatres and studios. I have 4 comps and will add another. All data used were taken from CapIQ. Per Public Comps, all but one of the calculations (Forward EPS*2014E) yields values that are all over the place and, in some cases, ... My company is basically without a direct comp. It sits between movie theatres and studios. I have 4 comps and will add another. All data used were taken from CapIQ.

Per Public Comps, all but one of the calculations (Forward EPS*2014E) yields values that are all over the place and, in some cases, wildly below the market price of $26 and change. I don't know how to make sense of dispersion that ranges from about $5 to $27. Suggestions?

On acquisitions, while the movie business is consolidating, they aren't buying other public companies. They are buying private firms. I found spotty data on one transaction. My Series 79 book says the 8Ks and Proxies are great places to look for info. on this. It's lying.

On selected premia, well, no transactions, no premia. End of story, yes?

Per DCF, my multiples give the market price and then some, but imply high growth rates of 6% to 7% (in line w/ company 11 yr CAGR). The perpetuity method, where I input 2% and 4% growth rates (kinda like the economy), produces values well below the market price of $26.

Lastly, I converted their no-debt WACC to an industry.

What's my best move with respect to this dispersion & lack of data? Should I say the comps were all over the place and, thus, inconclusive. There were no transactions, so the best valuation was a DCF multiple? Sorry for the barrage of questions, but it has been years since I did this. Read More

Multiples
This thread should be much shorter than the last . . . I have a transaction (intrinsic value) model going on here. I've used annual, historical data exclusively (2011, 2012, 2013). My first forecast year is 2014. The company reported 1Q14, so LTM data exists. I need to use multiples for my ref ra... This thread should be much shorter than the last . . .

I have a transaction (intrinsic value) model going on here. I've used annual, historical data exclusively (2011, 2012, 2013). My first forecast year is 2014. The company reported 1Q14, so LTM data exists. I need to use multiples for my ref range. Do I 1) stick with the yearly data and apply multiples to the annual data (for 2013 -- I can go back in time, thanks to CapIQ, and get comp multiples for that period in time) or 2) do I display an LTM column on my IS and apply only current, LTM multiples? In industry, we applied LTM multiples to LTM data, but that was a quarterly earnings model that hinged upon EV/EBITDA. I'm trying to avoid having this thing go quarterly.

Many thanks in advance. Read More

Re: Cash Circular
Well, what can I say. Thank you. I did not include the LT items because they were LT, but to is something to consider for the future. Many thanks and, well, I'll make the changes and move along to the rest of the model sans drama. Thank you once again. I love the company and chucking the model wo... Well, what can I say. Thank you. I did not include the LT items because they were LT, but to is something to consider for the future. Many thanks and, well, I'll make the changes and move along to the rest of the model sans drama.

Thank you once again. I love the company and chucking the model would have been awful. Read More

Re: Cash Circular
Nope. It didn't work. I give.

Re: Cash Circular
As an addendum, I have checked all formulas, all signs, and all working capital accounts. Basically, I have checked everything I can check, yet assets still exceed liabilities by an amount equal to interest income.