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Per Public Comps, all but one of the calculations (Forward EPS*2014E) yields values that are all over the place and, in some cases, wildly below the market price of $26 and change. I don't know how to make sense of dispersion that ranges from about $5 to $27. Suggestions?
On acquisitions, while the movie business is consolidating, they aren't buying other public companies. They are buying private firms. I found spotty data on one transaction. My Series 79 book says the 8Ks and Proxies are great places to look for info. on this. It's lying.
On selected premia, well, no transactions, no premia. End of story, yes?
Per DCF, my multiples give the market price and then some, but imply high growth rates of 6% to 7% (in line w/ company 11 yr CAGR). The perpetuity method, where I input 2% and 4% growth rates (kinda like the economy), produces values well below the market price of $26.
Lastly, I converted their no-debt WACC to an industry.
What's my best move with respect to this dispersion & lack of data? Should I say the comps were all over the place and, thus, inconclusive. There were no transactions, so the best valuation was a DCF multiple? Sorry for the barrage of questions, but it has been years since I did this. Read More