Re: Forecasting Tax Rate
As always, it's always a judgement call. Hence the art of valuation and modeling, not the science. Else, write an algo.
Remember, the value add of finance professionals is not dumb number crunching but the ability to qualitatively analyze inputs and outputs

Re: Ref Range Issues
Here's our assessment: 1) You must normalize the historical figures from CapIQ. They claim to adjust for one time items but not a good job of it. This is covered in our Complex Trading Comps course: http://www.wallst-training.com/self-stu ... l#package4 2) Are you using only EPS or Revenue, EBI... Here's our assessment:
1) You must normalize the historical figures from CapIQ. They claim to adjust for one time items but not a good job of it.
This is covered in our Complex Trading Comps course: http://www.wallst-training.com/self-stu ... l#package4

2) Are you using only EPS or Revenue, EBITDA and EBIT multiples as well?
This is covered in our Corporate Valuation Methodologies course: http://www.wallst-training.com/self-stu ... l#package4

3) Private company transaction data is tough to find especially if it's small enough that they don't have to disclose many details in the 8K and proxies. If no transactions and no data, end of story, yes. But you can ALWAYS find the data somehow.
This is covered in our Deal Comps Analysis (Precedent Transactions) course: http://www.wallst-training.com/self-stu ... l#package4

4) If the company is still in 6% - 7% growth mode, then the 2% - 4% perpetuity method doesn't really apply, although you have to do it to confirm it doesn't apply. Be prepared to justify the 6% - 7% growth in the future, although don't use the 6% - 7% growth in your gordon growth.

5) Correct. For more private company valuation: http://www.wallst-training.com/self-stu ... ml#private

Does it sound like we're referring you to our valuation courses? You bet ya. Not just a shameless self-advertising and upsell, but because these issues are all covered in our courses already and our free lifetime support is meant to help clarify as opposed to rehash the entire courses. Good news is, you're on the right track! Read More

Re: Multiples
The best practice is to have FOUR times periods:
FY0 aka LFY (last fiscal year) = 2013 actuals
LTM as of 2014 Q1
FY1 aka CFY (current fiscal year) = 2014E
FY2 aka NFY (next fiscal year) = 2015P

Re: Cash Circular
Several observations: 1) you have it set to average balance, so of course there will be circular references. Don't forget the entire explanation at the end of the WMT course about 1 for Beginning and 2 for Average. the GREAT news is that once you flip the switch to 1 for Beginning Balance, the circ... Several observations:
1) you have it set to average balance, so of course there will be circular references. Don't forget the entire explanation at the end of the WMT course about 1 for Beginning and 2 for Average. the GREAT news is that once you flip the switch to 1 for Beginning Balance, the circs are gone. If you need a refresher on Circular Reference due to average balance or Excel iterations to have Excel help you calculate, please log back into your online account and look for Exhibits course at the bottom of your course list. If you expired out, you can re-sign up for the Exhibits for free. Just go to our website at http://www.wallst-training.com and in the upper right, click on ORDER NOW and just check out at the bottom of the page with just Overview of FM and Exhibits selected (zero cost).

2) your historical balance sheet doesn't balance, most likely because you got lazy and didn't input all significant digits in your balance sheet line items. Please abide by all best practices communicated in our courses, including don't round. Since your 2013 BS doesn't balance, it is guaranteed that your future won't balance. It makes it much harder to audit since it's off due to multiple reasons.

3) please watch out for formatting. you have non-aligned numbers and random bolding on your BS and blue/black (ie Sales on IS) aren't correct. In addition, some of your numbers have zero decimals and others have one decimal and you have random $ where they shouldn't be (ie CFO)

4) For your actual problem of not balancing, here's what we did:

a) Liabilities in 2013 actual are too low by 0.075 so we hard coded that into cell H43 since we need to start clean with a balanced last actual BS. In reality, you will find the reason you don't balance historically and fix it instead of a random cell like we did.
b) Increased number of decimals on our check row so we can see more significant digits.
c) Start going down the BS to see which items change and see if such a change is reflected on CF Statement. Right away we notice the following line items that change but aren't reflected on CF statement:
- LT Investments (row 18)
- A/R, LT (row 19)
- Other Assets (row 21)
d) By inserting these into Working Capital items on CFO in CF Statement, we notice that our check gets closer to zero as we do one at a time.

And then suddenly - VOILA! Magically, you are balanced. Remember the Number ONE reason you don't balance is that you have items on the BS that aren't reflected on CF Statement. Hopefully this is a good reminder to be extremely diligent and super attention to detail when building models.

An addition note: technically, your GW & Intangibles amortization expense from the IS should deduct the GW & Intangibles line and not PPE row. PPE would thus take just Depreciation portion (not including the Amortization, else you double count).

And.. another balanced model. Changing the world by saving lives... WST. Read More

Re: Cash Circular
You do not want to force a balance - that would be plugging to balance the model and considered a taboo.
From your other post, it sounds like you got it though.